Phoenix Multifamily — The Supply Story Is Decelerating
Phoenix multifamily deliveries peaked at 24K units in 2024. 2026 projects ~13K. The supply pressure that broke rents in 2024-2025 is materially abating — but the price discovery hasn't caught up yet.
Phoenix multifamily deliveries peaked at ~24,000 units in 2024. 2025 ran ~19,000. The 2026 pipeline projects ~13,000 — a 31% step-down from peak.
The mechanism: permits issued in 2024 → 2026 deliveries. Permits issued in 2025 dropped sharply, which translates to materially fewer 2027 deliveries. The supply pressure that drove effective rent declines of 5-6% in east valley submarkets in 2024-2025 is materially abating.
The market narrative hasn't caught up yet. The consensus in late 2024 rotated from "buy at any price" to "Phoenix is broken." That's likely overcorrecting in the opposite direction. The right view is probably the boring middle: strong fundamentals, one acknowledged weakness (supply), pricing reflecting some of the weakness but not all, transaction window opening up.
Bid-ask on Class B garden in the east valley is roughly 12-18% wide versus where transactions cleared in 2022-2023 — sellers haven't capitulated to a buyer's market, but the gap is no longer prohibitive. We expect 2026 H2 to see transaction volume pick up.
For the full submarket-level breakdown and our specific pencil-bid targets, see the Phoenix Multifamily Market Review.
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