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A 48-unit garden-style multifamily in West Tampa at a $12.4M ask. Below are the four outputs LargeKite produces — OM extraction, AI deal analysis, IC memo, and categorized risk profile — rendered on this single deal.
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The OM Analyzer reads broker PDFs and returns purchase price, NOI, occupancy, unit mix, expense breakdown, broker assumptions, and red flags — as strict JSON.
The OM Analyzer reads broker PDFs and returns purchase price, NOI, occupancy, unit mix, expense breakdown, broker assumptions, and red flags — as strict JSON.
tampa_west_48units_OM.pdf
2.1 MB · 42 pages · Uploaded just now
Purchase Price
$12.40M
NOI
$725,400
Cap Rate
5.85%
Occupancy
91%
Avg Rent
$1,410
Total Expenses
$408,300
Unit Types
3
Red Flags
4
Unit Mix
| Type | Count | Avg Rent |
|---|---|---|
| 1BR / 1BA · 720 sqft | 18 | $1,295 |
| 2BR / 1BA · 920 sqft | 22 | $1,445 |
| 2BR / 2BA · 1,040 sqft | 8 | $1,625 |
Expense Breakdown
- Property Taxes$124,500
- Insurance$62,400
- Repairs & Maintenance$71,800
- Utilities (common)$38,200
- Payroll$58,900
- Management Fee (3.5%)$39,700
- G&A$12,800
Broker Assumptions
- •Pro forma assumes 5.0% stabilized vacancy (trailing 12 actuals: 9.1%).
- •Pro forma assumes $1,510 average rent — a 7.1% premium to in-place.
- •Replacement reserves excluded from operating expenses ($0/door).
- •Property management modeled at 3.0% (institutional standard is 3.5–4.0%).
Red Flags
- •Trailing-12 vacancy of 9.1% materially above pro forma 5.0%.
- •34% of leases expire within 90 days of close — significant rollover risk.
- •Three units have been vacant 120+ days at listed asking rents.
- •Property tax pro forma does not reflect post-sale reassessment uplift in Hillsborough County.
Five specialist agents collaborate on a unified IC report.
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Underwriting, Market Research, Risk, Operations, and Investment Committee agents run in parallel — then the IC agent synthesizes the final view.
Underwriting, Market Research, Risk, Operations, and Investment Committee agents run in parallel — then the IC agent synthesizes the final view.
Investment Committee · 5 Agents
4821 N Lincoln Ave, Tampa, FL 33614
Agent activity
Underwriting
Completed · 8.4s
Market Research
Completed · 12.1s
Risk Analysis
Completed · 7.9s
Operations
Completed · 6.2s
Investment Committee
Completed · 14.3s
Investment Summary
A 48-unit garden-style multifamily in the West Tampa submarket at a $12.4M ask (5.85% cap on broker pro forma, ~4.9% on TTM actuals). The asset has clear value-add upside through interior renovations and rent push, but the rollover concentration and post-sale tax basis create material year-one execution risk that the broker pro forma does not reflect.
Investment Thesis
This is a classic value-add play with honest upside if underwritten honestly. The 1985 vintage in a strong submarket at a defensible basis ($258K/door) supports a renovation-and-rent-push strategy that should deliver a 16-19% IRR over a 5-year hold. The deal works if — and only if — we recast the broker pro forma to reflect TTM actual vacancy, post-sale tax basis, and a realistic 18-month stabilization timeline. At the asking price of $12.4M, the math is tight; a $400-500K price reduction would create the margin of safety we want.
Cash Flow Insights
- •Year-one cash flow likely negative under our base case after capex of $9,200/door is deployed for interior turns.
- •Stabilization assumed by month 18; year-three trending NOI of ~$865K supports a 6.5% trending cap rate.
- •DSCR at quoted agency terms (5.95% rate, 65% LTV, 30yr amort) is 1.18x year one, 1.34x year three.
- •Loss-to-lease of $115/door is real but only 38% executable in year one given the lease ladder.
Value-Add Opportunities
- •Interior renovation program: $7,200/door across 36 unrenovated units → $135/mo rent premium (24-month payback).
- •Bring management in-house with a 2.5% fee structure vs current 3.5% (modest but real $19K annual NOI lift).
- •Add washer/dryer to 22 units lacking in-unit laundry → $45/mo rent premium plus higher retention.
Market — Tampa MSA · West Tampa
Tampa is one of the strongest secondary-market multifamily stories in the Southeast — strong household formation, employment diversification, landlord-friendly regulation, and wide affordability spread to ownership. The near-term supply pressure is real but creates a buying opportunity for investors with the patience to underwrite through the absorption cycle.
- Population
- Tampa MSA population grew 1.4% YoY in 2024 (4th-fastest among 50 largest metros). The 25-44 renter cohort grew 1.8%, supporting multifamily demand specifically.
- Rent
- Metro multifamily rents +3.2% YoY through Q1 2026, decelerating from the 7%+ pace of 2022-2023 as new supply absorbs. West Tampa submarket has outperformed metro by ~60 bps annually over the past five years.
- Income
- MSA median household income $67,400 (vs national $74,580). Renter-cohort income $58,900, supporting a $1,475 ceiling at 30% rent-to-income.
- Employment
- Tampa metro employment +2.1% YoY led by healthcare, finance, and port/logistics. Diversification is healthy — no single industry exceeds 18% of employment.
- Supply
- 1,840 units under construction in the submarket, with 1,200 delivering in 2026. This represents ~4.1% of existing stock — a yellow flag. Concession activity expected to weigh on new lease rates through mid-2027.
- Outlook
- Twelve-month outlook: flat to slightly negative effective rent growth as supply absorbs, recovering to 3-4% growth by 2H 2027. Long-term thesis (5-10 year) remains attractive given demographic tailwinds.
How much should you trust the verdict?
What this shows ↓Hide ↑
Three independent dimensions — assumption defensibility, market stability, underwriting quality — each scored against documented contributors. The composite tells you how decisive the recommendation can be, given the inputs.
Three independent dimensions — assumption defensibility, market stability, underwriting quality — each scored against documented contributors. The composite tells you how decisive the recommendation can be, given the inputs.
Deal Confidence · Epistemic Layer
How much to trust the verdict
71/100
Moderate confidence (71/100). assumption confidence is the limiting factor (37/100); underwriting quality provides the lift (100/100). Read the verdict with the caveat that assumption confidence is materially below the other dimensions.
Assumption Confidence
37/100
How defensible is the broker pro-forma stack — vacancy, rent push, expense load, replacement reserves?
Market Stability
81/100
How durable is the underlying market data — demographic trend, supply pipeline, employer concentration?
Underwriting Quality
100/100
How complete are the inputs and how cleanly did the analysis pipeline run?
Same deal, five different verdicts.
What this shows ↓Hide ↑
The Tampa deal scores differently depending on what the investor is optimizing for. A Cash-Flow investor sees one thing; a Value-Add investor sees something else. Pick a strategy to make your analysis personalize accordingly.
The Tampa deal scores differently depending on what the investor is optimizing for. A Cash-Flow investor sees one thing; a Value-Add investor sees something else. Pick a strategy to make your analysis personalize accordingly.
Pick your strategy (persists across sessions)
Tampa Deal · Fit Across All Five Strategies
Strategy Fit · Cash Flow
How this deal fits your strategy
This deal is a mismatch for Cash Flow (0/100). 3 strategy-specific red flags triggered. The deal may still be a Pursue on its absolute merits — but it's not the right deal for this strategy.
✓ Strategy criteria met (1)
- ✓IRR 16.0% clears 10% floor
✗ Strategy red flags (3)
- ✗Broker Assumption flag matters extra for Cash Flow: "Replacement reserves omitted from expense load"
- ✗Broker Assumption flag matters extra for Cash Flow: "Coastal market insurance assumption not stress-tested"
- ✗Value-add thesis sits outside strategy mandate
Target metrics below strategy floor
Cap Rate
4.95% · target ≥6.00%
Avg DSCR
1.25x · target ≥1.30x
Try a different strategy on the same deal — fit can change materially without the numbers moving.
Strategy Fit · Value-Add
How this deal fits your strategy
This deal is acceptable but not ideal for Value-Add (49/100). Strategy-specific red flags: 1. A different strategy may produce a stronger verdict on the same deal.
✓ Strategy criteria met (3)
- ✓Cap rate 4.95% clears 4.5% target
- ✓IRR 16.0% clears 15% floor
- ✓Value-add thesis aligns with strategy
✗ Strategy red flags (1)
- ✗Capex Risk flag matters extra for Value-Add: "Pre-1990 vintage with light capex reserves"
Try a different strategy on the same deal — fit can change materially without the numbers moving.
Strategy Fit · Appreciation
How this deal fits your strategy
This deal is acceptable but not ideal for Appreciation (45/100). A different strategy may produce a stronger verdict on the same deal.
✓ Strategy criteria met (2)
- ✓Cap rate 4.95% clears 4% target
- ✓IRR 16.0% clears 12% floor
Try a different strategy on the same deal — fit can change materially without the numbers moving.
Strategy Fit · Conservative Income
How this deal fits your strategy
This deal is a mismatch for Conservative Income (0/100). 3 strategy-specific red flags triggered. The deal may still be a Pursue on its absolute merits — but it's not the right deal for this strategy.
✗ Strategy red flags (3)
- ✗Broker Assumption flag matters extra for Conservative Income: "Replacement reserves omitted from expense load"
- ✗Broker Assumption flag matters extra for Conservative Income: "Coastal market insurance assumption not stress-tested"
- ✗Value-add thesis sits outside strategy mandate
Target metrics below strategy floor
Cap Rate
4.95% · target ≥5.50%
Avg DSCR
1.25x · target ≥1.40x
Try a different strategy on the same deal — fit can change materially without the numbers moving.
Strategy Fit · Opportunistic
How this deal fits your strategy
This deal is a mismatch for Opportunistic (18/100). The deal may still be a Pursue on its absolute merits — but it's not the right deal for this strategy.
✓ Strategy criteria met (1)
- ✓Value-add thesis aligns with strategy
Target metrics below strategy floor
Cap Rate
4.95% · target ≥5.00%
Levered IRR
16.0% · target ≥20%
Equity Multiple
1.95x · target ≥2.00x
Try a different strategy on the same deal — fit can change materially without the numbers moving.
Simulated IC discussion — the seven recurring slices of a real meeting.
What this shows ↓Hide ↑
Bull case, bear case, debate points framed as committee questions, what would kill the deal, required diligence, financing concerns, and time-stamped exit scenarios.
Bull case, bear case, debate points framed as committee questions, what would kill the deal, required diligence, financing concerns, and time-stamped exit scenarios.
▲ Bull Case
- ▲Defensible basis: $258K/door versus replacement cost of ~$310K/door provides a 17% margin of error on the entry valuation.
- ▲Real loss-to-lease executable in year one ($115/door across 18 expiring leases) supports immediate NOI accretion without aggressive assumptions.
- ▲Submarket has consistently out-performed metro by 60 bps on rent growth — long-term thesis is grounded in a multi-year trend, not a one-year anomaly.
- ▲Interior renovation program has a measurable 24-month payback per unit, which makes the value-add executable in our hold period rather than a year-7 hope.
▼ Bear Case
- ▼4.1% submarket supply pipeline through mid-2027 will compress rents and extend lease-up timelines on any vacated units.
- ▼Year-one DSCR of 1.18x leaves no room for execution error — a 90-day delay in renovations or a 100 bps rate move kills the financing structure.
- ▼Post-sale tax reassessment in Hillsborough County adds ~$22K/year that the broker pro forma ignored entirely.
- ▼Current PMC track record on value-add multifamily is weak; transition risk during year-one rollover is non-trivial.
Key Debate Points
Pricing
"At what price does this deal become a Pursue rather than a Conditional? Are we willing to walk if the seller holds at $12.4M?"
Capex
"Is the $9,200/door renovation budget supported by recent comparable scope-and-cost data, or are we using a metro-level benchmark?"
Lease-up timing
"If the 34% rollover concentration produces 15% transitional vacancy, do we have enough capital to fund the lease-up before recovery?"
PMC transition
"Have we identified specific multifamily-specialist PMCs taking on new assets in West Tampa, or is the transition plan still hypothetical?"
Exit cap
"What exit cap rate are we underwriting for a 5-year hold, and how sensitive is the equity multiple to a 50 bps move in either direction?"
⚠ What Would Kill This Deal
- ⚠Submarket supply delivers ahead of schedule (Q2-Q3 2026 instead of Q4) and concessions extend into our lease-up window.
- ⚠Post-sale property tax reassessment comes in 20%+ above our $22K/year estimate due to comparable sales we did not anticipate.
- ⚠Capex contingency runs over by 50%+ because the 1985 mechanical systems are in worse condition than the inspection report indicates.
- ⚠Fannie agency terms tighten between now and close, pushing required DSCR coverage from 1.20x to 1.30x.
- ⚠Two of the three currently long-vacant units turn out to have structural issues that require taking offline for 9+ months.
Required Due Diligence
- →Pull last 24 months of rent roll snapshots from the seller — verify 34% rollover concentration and any concession-loaded leases.
- →Engage a third-party physical inspector with multifamily-specific experience; full mechanical, roof, foundation, and unit-by-unit interior assessment.
- →Order new property tax assessment estimate from the county or a local tax consultant — confirm or refute our $22K/year reassessment estimate.
- →Lender meetings with at least two agency lenders (Fannie, Freddie) and one bank for backup; lock indicative terms with confirmed DSCR coverage.
- →PMC transition: interview at least three multifamily-specialist PMCs currently taking on West Tampa assets; confirm capacity and fee structure.
- →Submarket lease-up survey: visit the three nearest new construction projects to confirm concession structure and absorption pace.
- →Lease-by-lease review: identify any units with co-signer arrangements, government subsidies, or other non-standard tenant structures.
Financing Concerns
- $Agency DSCR of 1.18x year one is tight enough that any rate move pre-close could push the deal outside lender appetite — recommend rate-lock at IC approval.
- $Refinance assumption at year 5 (6.25% rate, 60% LTV) requires NOI growth of ~19% from year-one base; if achieved, refi returns 40% of equity; if missed, we hold to natural exit.
- $Equity contribution of $4.34M (35% down on $12.4M) is achievable for most LP structures but eats into reserves; consider a mezzanine layer to preserve cash.
- $Interest-only period of 12 months is included in current quote — losing IO would meaningfully impact year-one cash flow and DSCR coverage.
Exit Scenarios
Refinance and hold
Year 5 (Q2 2031)
Return ~40% of initial equity; cash-on-cash improves to ~9-11% on remaining basis; continue to hold through 2036+
Sale to private buyer
Year 5-6 (2031-2032)
Sale at 6.0-6.5% cap on stabilized NOI; gross 17-19% IRR; net of fees and waterfall, LP IRR ~14-16%
Sale to institutional buyer
Year 7+ (2033+)
Requires institutional-quality operations and reporting; cap rate compression to 5.5-5.75%; potential for LP IRR 16-18% if executed
Forced sale (downside)
Year 3-4 if lease-up fails
Sale at break-even basis; LP IRR 4-7%; preserves capital but does not produce value-add returns
The system remembers your prior deals — and surfaces comparisons.
What this shows ↓Hide ↑
Every analyzed deal is recorded in memory. New analyses are automatically compared to prior ones, producing natural-language insights like "cap rate is 0.45 pts lower than your last Dallas deal."
Every analyzed deal is recorded in memory. New analyses are automatically compared to prior ones, producing natural-language insights like "cap rate is 0.45 pts lower than your last Dallas deal."
Insights · What memory says about Tampa
- ↔
You've analyzed 4 prior multifamily deals — this Tampa property scores 3 points lower than your average (68 vs avg 71/100).
- ↔
Cap rate of 4.95% is 0.45 pts lower than your last analyzed deal (14250 Preston Rd in Dallas at 5.40%).
- ◎
3 of your last 4 multifamily deals have come in with risk scores 50+ — the supply environment is producing more cautious underwrites across markets.
- ↔
Risk score 62/100 is right in line with your recent average (avg 59/100) — extra diligence is warranted but not unusual.
Memory · 4 prior analyses
| Address | Type | Cap | Risk | Score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14250 Preston Rd Dallas MSA · North Dallas | Multifamily (mid-rise) | 5.40% | 48 | 74 | Pursue |
2200 Howell Mill Rd Atlanta MSA · Westside | Multifamily (garden-style) | 5.20% | 58 | 61 | Conditional |
4500 Cameron Valley Pkwy Charlotte MSA · South Park | Office (Class B) | 6.50% | 78 | 38 | Pass |
7320 E Camelback Rd Phoenix MSA · North Scottsdale | Multifamily (garden-style) | 5.65% | 54 | 71 | Pursue |
Move the sliders. See IRR, DSCR, and cash flow update live.
What this shows ↓Hide ↑
Five drivers — interest rate, vacancy, rent growth, exit cap, renovation budget — recompute the full five-year projection on every change. Base / Stress / Upside presets give you a one-click sensitivity view.
Five drivers — interest rate, vacancy, rent growth, exit cap, renovation budget — recompute the full five-year projection on every change. Base / Stress / Upside presets give you a one-click sensitivity view.
Live Recompute
Tampa 48-Unit · Live Scenarios
Annual debt rate at close.
Pp added to base vacancy assumption.
Year-over-year rent growth.
Cap rate applied to year-N NOI at sale.
Total one-time renovation budget.
Levered IRR
1.3%
Equity Multiple
1.06x
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
2.9%
Avg DSCR
1.27x
Year-by-year cash flow
| Year | NOI | Debt Service | Cash Flow | DSCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $725,400 | $576,780 | $148,620 | 1.26x |
| Year 2 | $728,921 | $576,780 | $152,142 | 1.26x |
| Year 3 | $732,460 | $576,780 | $155,680 | 1.27x |
| Year 4 | $736,015 | $576,780 | $159,236 | 1.28x |
| Year 5 | $739,588 | $576,780 | $162,809 | 1.28x |
| Exit (yr 5) | Net proceeds | $4,643,052 |
Sensitivity — Presets vs Current
Base
Conservative recast — TTM-actual vacancy, full institutional expense load.
Stress
Joint shock: rate +100 bps, vacancy +4pp, rent growth halved, cap rate +75 bps.
Upside
Successful value-add: rent growth +200 bps, vacancy -2pp, cap rate -50 bps at exit.
Current
Your slider settings.
Download a private-equity-style IC memo, one click.
What this shows ↓Hide ↑
Cover, executive summary, deal terms, market brief, risk profile, operations, and IC recommendation — multi-page PDF in your house style.
Cover, executive summary, deal terms, market brief, risk profile, operations, and IC recommendation — multi-page PDF in your house style.
LARGEKITE CAPITAL
Investment Memorandum
4821 N Lincoln Ave, Tampa, FL 33614
Generated 5/15/2026 · CONFIDENTIAL
Executive Summary
A 48-unit garden-style multifamily in the West Tampa submarket at a $12.4M ask (5.85% cap on broker pro forma, ~4.9% on TTM actuals). The asset has clear value-add upside through interior renovations and rent push, but the rollover concentration and post-sale tax basis create material year-one execution risk that the broker pro forma does not reflect.
Deal Terms
| Term | Value |
|---|---|
| Purchase Price | $12.40M |
| NOI (TTM) | $725,400 |
| Cap Rate (Recast) | 4.95% |
| Units | 48 |
| Year Built | 1985 |
| Property Type | Multifamily (garden-style) |
| Occupancy | 91% |
IC Recommendation
Recommendation: Conditional
Pursue with a counter-bid of $11.9M (representing a 5.1% cap on recast underwriting) and a 60-day diligence period to confirm rent roll concentrations, capex scope, and PMC transition plan. Pass if seller will not move from $12.4M — the margin of safety is insufficient at ask given the supply pipeline and rollover concentration.
Strengths
- +Strong submarket fundamentals: demographic tailwinds, employment diversification, landlord-friendly regulation.
- +Real value-add opportunity with executable interior renovation program (24-month payback per unit).
- +Defensible basis at $258K/door relative to replacement cost of ~$310K/door.
Weaknesses
- −Broker pro forma is aggressive on vacancy and rent push — recasting brings true cap rate from 5.85% to 4.95%.
- −Significant lease rollover concentration (34% within 90 days of close) creates year-one execution risk.
- −Submarket supply pipeline (4.1% of stock) will weigh on rent growth through mid-2027.
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Questions Layer, Comparables, Memo Workspace, Operations Intel, Why This Matters, Risk Profile, Hidden Risks, Underwriting Assistant, Market Narrative, Neighborhood Intelligence, Research Timeline, Press Kit
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