Tampa, FL vs Phoenix, AZ: Which Is the Better Investment?
Compare Tampa (cap rate 6.5%) vs Phoenix (cap rate 5.4%). Rent, appreciation, vacancy, and market health analysis.
Tampa Price
$380K
Phoenix Price
$420K
Tampa Cap Rate
6.5%
Phoenix Cap Rate
5.4%
Tampa Rent
$2,050/mo
Phoenix Rent
$1,900/mo
Tampa Growth
1.8%
Phoenix Growth
1.6%
| Tampa | Metric | Phoenix |
|---|---|---|
| $380K | Median Price | $420K |
| $2,050/mo | Median Rent | $1,900/mo |
| 6.5% | Cap Rate | 5.4% |
| 6.1% | Appreciation | 3.8% |
| 4% | Vacancy | 5.5% |
| 392,890 | Population | 1,644,409 |
| 1.8% | Pop. Growth | 1.6% |
| 6/10 | School Rating | 5/10 |
AI Comparison Verdict
Tampa, FL
Good Investment
RecommendedPhoenix, AZ
Hold
Tampa ($380K median, 6.5% cap rate) vs Phoenix ($420K median, 5.4% cap rate). Tampa offers higher rents with 1.8% population growth, while Phoenix provides higher appreciation with 3.8% appreciation. Tampa scores 63/100, outperforming Phoenix with stronger cash flow potential.
Summary
Tampa ($380K median, 6.5% cap rate) vs Phoenix ($420K median, 5.4% cap rate). Tampa offers higher rents with 1.8% population growth, while Phoenix provides higher appreciation with 3.8% appreciation. Tampa scores 63/100, outperforming Phoenix with stronger cash flow potential.
Bull Case
- 1
Tampa, FL: Strong population growth of +1.8% annually drives sustained rental demand and reduces vacancy risk, creating favorable conditions for landlords.
- 2
Phoenix, AZ: Strong population growth of +1.6% annually drives sustained rental demand and reduces vacancy risk, creating favorable conditions for landlords.
- 3
Tampa, FL: Above-average cap rate of 6.5% generates strong cash flow from day one, providing a buffer against expense increases and vacancy periods.
- 4
Phoenix, AZ: 3.8% annual appreciation combined with principal paydown creates compelling total returns even with moderate cash flow.
Bear Case
- 1
Tampa, FL: Rising interest rates increase carrying costs — a 1% rate increase on a $304K loan adds ~$253/month to mortgage payments, compressing cash flow.
- 2
Phoenix, AZ: Rising interest rates increase carrying costs — a 1% rate increase on a $336K loan adds ~$280/month to mortgage payments, compressing cash flow.
- 3
Tampa, FL: Extremely tight inventory (1.9 months) may force overpaying, eroding cap rate below the 6.5% market average.
- 4
Phoenix, AZ: Increasing new construction permits could add supply, pushing vacancy above the current 5.5% and pressuring rents downward.
Key Risks
- !
Interest rate risk: refinancing in a higher-rate environment could eliminate positive cash flow on leveraged properties, requiring additional capital reserves.
- !
Interest rate risk: refinancing in a higher-rate environment could eliminate positive cash flow on leveraged properties, requiring additional capital reserves.
- !
Above-median crime index (45) in certain neighborhoods may impact tenant quality, insurance costs, and property appreciation trajectory.
- !
Above-median crime index (52) in certain neighborhoods may impact tenant quality, insurance costs, and property appreciation trajectory.
Final Verdict
Tampa, FL edges ahead in our analysis. Tampa scores 63/100, outperforming Phoenix with stronger cash flow potential. Ultimately, the best choice depends on your investment timeline, risk tolerance, and portfolio allocation.
Compare Alternatives
Analyze Your Own Investment
Run a full AI-powered comparison of Tampa, FL vs Phoenix, AZ with detailed Decision Scores and personalized recommendations.
Try LargeKite AI — Compare NowGet Weekly AI Investment Insights
Decision Scores, market analysis, and opportunities — delivered every Monday.
Free forever. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.